TwoCents
As a professor in Governance and Public Policy in Kenya what's your take on the current political climate in the country, the lack of credible political opposition, politics of succession and sentiments among the voting population. What can be done to bring about change and avoid the risk of post-election violence?
Long question...
The current Kenyan politics has multiple potential alignments for the 2022 general and presidential elections. The President (2013-17; 2018-22) has reneged on a promise to support the Deputy President's (DP) presidency (2023-2032). The reason is unclear, but the DP's Kalenjin people see betrayal, especially because the President 'shook hands' with, and is campaigning for long-standing opposition leader, Odinga, of Luo ethnicity. [See https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2020-10-26-behind-the-scenes-ruto-played-part-in-making-handshake-happen-uhuru/]
But politics has no never: when the President has been indecisive, Odinga and the DP Ruto have 'spoken' about a joint platform. Most recently, the DP has acquired Kikuyu woman County Governor Waiguru, who has in the past been more than just the President's close confidant. Indeed, the DP has 'captured' the youth in the President's ethnically Kikuyu, and populous Mt Kenya political backyard , which Odinga has approached through the region's elite. The various other presidential candidates are seen as bridesmaids.
While the elections are a long 10 months away, expectations seem pretty high among the DP's Kalenjin people, with some politicians declaring it a do-or-die event. The Kalenjin were not responsible for the 2007 injustices, but had prepared for and instigated the violence to evict non-Kalenjins - notably the Kikuyu, from their 'ancestral' land. [See http://www.knchr.org/Portals/0/Reports/Waki_Report.pdf]
The 2022 presidential election outcome will likely be contested. An Odinga loss could bring Luo youth into the streets, in localised, urban protests particularly targeting Nairobi and Kisumu. A Ruto loss could see the seemingly better organised Kalenjin youth in Uasin Gishu and neighbouring areas, possibly with some Mt Kenya youth support. Ironically, the Kalenjin might be evicting Kikuyu 'outsiders' who have settled on their 'ancestral' lands.
However, August 2022 is a long way away!
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